The speculators in the Iowa Electronic Markets certainly don't think so. The IEM 2012 presidential election prediction market indicates that, as of 9:30 CST today, Obama has a 60 percent chance of winning the popular vote; Romney, only a 40 percent chance.
And Nate Silver doesn't think so either. Silver has the lowdown on the Electoral College: Obama 302, Romney 236. Most important, Silver gives Obama a 72-percent chance of winning the Electoral College vote as against Romney's 28-percent chance.
We can't relax entirely unless Obama has a 100 percent probability of winning every one of those 538 electoral votes, but things are certainly looking good.
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"The Iowa Electronic Markets"?
The IEM is a real-money, Web-based system on which anonymous traders . . . [bet on future] events. On the IEM’s presidential election market . . . the price of each candidate’s stock reflects the . . . forecast of who will win in November, a forecast that, in the past, has proven quite accurate. (Salon)
"Nate Silver"?
The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year. (Wikipedia)
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