A few days ago RBC had
a post about vampire numbers -- statistics that don't have any good basis in reality but that are impossible to kill. You know, like 8 glasses of water a day.
One of my favorite vampire numbers is "A woman has a 1 in 9 chance of getting breast cancer during her lifetime." (Recently I heard "1 in 8.")
It's absolute baloney. Even a spokeswoman for the American Cancer Society, which touts the "statistic" at every opportunity, admits that it is
"more of a metaphor than a hard number."Um, er, . . ., no, lady. "A might fortress is our God" is a metaphor. "1 in 9" is, indeed, a hard number. And it's a lie.
What "1 in 9" really means -- if it means anything -- is something like this: Suppose a baby girl is born. If she is to live 110 years, she has a 1 in 9 chance of contracting breast cancer at some time. (Not
die of breast cancer, mind you: Worldwide, apparently, about
two-thirds of breast-cancer victims survive.)
Needless to say, most women (and men too, unfortunately) find lots of other ways to end their lives -- heart attacks, strokes, traffic accidents, other forms of cancer, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera -- long, long, long before reaching 110.
To be clear: Obviously, breast cancer is awful, awful, awful.
Awful.
My only point is that "1 in 9" is a dopey statistic. The idea that 1 woman in 9 will get breast cancer is just silly. At age 40, a woman's risk of breast cancer is something like 1 in 1,000; at age 60, her risk would be about 1 in 500.